Larry Dignan
From ZDNet:
Boy, this Windows collapsing under its own weight argument has some legs.
A few points about this Gartner presentation two days ago, which has raised quite a ruckus on Techmeme. The analysts argued Wednesday morning that Windows was collapsing under its own weight because the code is too bulky. Microsoft (MSFT) has to support all of these legacy applications. The fix was to become more modular, which is something Microsoft has already acknowledged. Vista has its problems, but as Mary Jo Foley adds: Reports of Windows'' demise are greatly exaggerated.
A few key points:
- Michael Arrington tells us that Microsoft must complete the Yahoo deal to remain relevant as Windows collapses. Let’s ponder this: Ok, I’m done. The argument makes no sense to me. So business hasn’t been so hot for Vista. Is the fix really to buy Yahoo (YHOO)? Does Yahoo make Microsoft relevant? Arrington notes that Microsoft is nothing without its consumer and business desktop software profits. That’s like saying Boeing (BA) is nothing without its airplane manufacturing business. Yahoo would keep Microsoft relevant in the medium term, Arrington argues. What does Yahoo have to do with Windows – a completely separate, not to mention infinitely more profitable, business? Microsoft’s potential purchase of Yahoo is about distributing advertising and search via the software giant’s platform. Force feed Microsoft’s search and AdCenter (or any platform) via Yahoo’s properties and poof! you have market share.
- Windows won’t collapse overnight. Folks have been saying Windows is toast for 10 years at least. The browser is the OS is the common refrain. If you say so. The reality is that this alleged collapse will take years, perhaps decades. I made this point in my initial post, but somehow collapsing under its own weight turned into collapsing tomorrow. Windows is a glacier and glaciers don’t melt in a day.
- The Vista initial corporate uptake – or lack of it – may not all that meaningful. I had a conversation yesterday with an IT exec at a massive company – the most stable household name you can think of. Guess what this company is doing? Upgrading to XP. Yes, folks, upgrading. The company has this thing for maintaining one OS instance for its hundreds of thousands employees. The time has come to move from Windows 2000 to XP. Vista? Puhleeze. But guess what? What Windows version this company uses is irrelevant – it’s still paying its licensing fees.
- Gartner is often wrong. Another theme that’s prevalent in the talkbacks to my previous post is that Gartner can be a bit off with its predictions. The prediction game is fraught with risk. Remember Apple (AAPL)? It was toast just a few years ago. That prediction is just comical now. Windows 13 years ago was going to fall to Netscape and yet we’re still bickering about Microsoft’s OS.
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This article has 28 comments:
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seriously ?
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38 Comments
Apr 11 03:42 PM-
CH
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5 Comments
Apr 11 03:51 PM-
TA
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345 Comments
Apr 11 03:55 PMI'm far more excited about Server 2008, Exchange 2007 and SQL 2008. Unlike the desktop, the server code bases continue to streamline and improve(the latest stuff is the best I've ever seen).
If only the workstation group followed the cue from the server group...
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Jonathan Scott
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89 Comments
Apr 11 04:43 PM-
Jonathan Scott
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89 Comments
Apr 11 04:45 PM-
deasys
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24 Comments
Apr 11 05:28 PM-
Mafeking
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35 Comments
Apr 11 06:15 PMThe many flavors of Linux despite the best efforts of the open source community are still difficult to install and use. One area in particular where Windows outshines Linux is in WiFi connectivity. In this area Linux sucks. The open source hobbyists simply cannot seem to get wireless connectivity right.
Of course the Apple's operating system is great and of course it is more stylish than a WIndows computer and I would love to change over, but the trading programs and tools I use are exclusively Windows based. And that issue is in every domain. People use Windows not because of WIndows, but because of the range of WIndows applications. It is trendy to knock MSFT.
Then MSFT come out and beat the street.
Ho hum, I guess the highly paid Gartner analysts create he frisson of excitement to earn their highly paid keep.
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ValueInvestor
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89 Comments
Apr 11 06:51 PMApple has a P/E of 32 and a forward P/E of 30. Looks like its priced in to me. Only growth stocks have P/E's that high and thats only assuming they can keep that level of growth up.
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John Pseudonym
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232 Comments
Apr 11 07:20 PMMicrosoft has lost that war.
Now the battle moves to the desktop. For now, Linux is for the enthusiast; but it's desktop day is coming.
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pricci
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1 Comment
Apr 11 09:22 PM"People use Windows not because of WIndows, but because of the range of WIndows applications." I agree completely... that's why Apple now let's you run both operating systems on a MAC. Check out Boot Camp and Spaces (www.apple.com/macosx/f.../)
You can't do this on a Dell or HP PC...
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MGX
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1 Comment
Apr 11 11:51 PMRe: AAPL vs MSFT valuation, that's just silly. AAPL market cap is 50% of MSFT but generates 24% relative income! In absolute numbers MSFT has 400% the net income of AAPL. I'm bullish on both, but AAPL seems to have quite a lot of growth already priced in, while MSFT is priced at 0% growth already. They are different businesses though, and numbers do not tell everything.
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deasys
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24 Comments
Apr 12 01:50 AMAccording to NASDAQ, AAPL's forward P/E is 23.4.
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karchad
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70 Comments
Apr 12 08:19 AM-
jescott418
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4 Comments
Apr 12 09:39 AMI think every big company has some flops. Obviously Vista is no XP. I really think Microsoft wanted a clean break from the past with Vista. But they got cold feat or preasure from third party vendors. Apple has more control over their hardware and software so clean breaks are much easier. They pretty much just say to the venders take it or leave it. Microsoft needs to do the same.
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Jimmy Goodwin
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49 Comments
Apr 12 10:12 AM-
David Lentz
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357 Comments
Apr 12 10:31 AMI'm happy with the current "melt rate", as Apple would not be able to adjust to accommodate the increase in business if it gained market share much faster.
I don't want Apple to choke on the flow of customers if Microsoftees were to defect in droves. A few percent a year is plenty to keep Apple growing and their stock soaring.
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Mafeking
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35 Comments
Apr 12 02:32 PMthis is an investment site not a techie chat room so I apologize - but I just want to set the record straight. Macs have problems running Windows apps that use sockets. Unfortunately it does not work properly.
More to the point MSFT is still pretty profitable and it is dangerous to succumb to the wishful thinking of the Windows haters that MSFT is going away anytime soon.
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brewer
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422 Comments
Apr 12 03:14 PMYou must be thinking of emulation when you are talking about sockets, or else you are thinking of development issues, and what is difficult to port to other platforms. There is no such issue with any application. There is no application that won't run on an Intel Mac. As far as any of the software is concerned, it's a PC. (The hardware is essentially PC hardware.)
Buying a GENERIC PC (one that doesn't legally run Mac OS) gives you no advantage, and you are stuck with a lot of older technologies (for the sake of Microsoft) such as BIOS. Macs have EFI. This is why they boot so incredibly fast and make even the newest 'hottest' :-) PC look like a relic by comparison.
You think it's dangerous to underestimate Microsoft. That's funny, I think it's dangerous to underestimate Apple. After all, it was Apple that started the PC business in the first place, and then revolutionized it with the Mac. Microsoft has only followed suit. Their strength is in recognizing a trend, not in creating one. Now, they have no way to re-create themselves. Yeah, they aren't going to go away right away, sure. But Apple will continue to gobble up their marketshare.
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Tom Caldwell
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1 Comment
My Website
Apr 12 07:34 PMWe are a data mining company that does analysis of e-mail and networks. I've seen infected iPhones and Windows mobile devices spewing out spam/viruses. We've found enterprise based linux servers that have been comprimised. The security arguments of Windows vs. "nix" are quite dead, in fact they are an laughable insult to a real security insider.
I'm not overly impressed with Vista, and I still love my XP laptop and won't be upgrading it. The most important factor is I'll NEVER use, nor have my employees use anything but a Microsoft based operating system.
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seeksome
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89 Comments
My Website
Apr 12 08:00 PMseeksomething.com
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steveballmer
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156 Comments
My Website
Apr 12 09:52 PMThese "anallyst" say we may only have five years left before we are yesterday's news, RUBBISH! (excuse my language) Do any of you people know how much money we have? How many people we hire? How many design committees we have?
Please just dismiss this latest report by the "experts" claiming that we are clueless about what you people want! We know, I know exactly what you want!
I'll prove it, you want:
1. Computers integrated into your furniture! ie: the Surface Coffeetable.
2. The ZunePhone! Those who have bought iPhumbs will trash them when we release ZP1
3. A Home Server in the basement! It will control everything from lights, to backups, to toilets.
4. All subscription Software! Why buy Windows when you can rent it?
5. Software so secure that even you can't get in it! (Cancel or Allow?)
6. XP to be killed so that everyone can experience Vista, even if they are too ignorant to know it's a must-have! We will choose for you, don't worry!
... What these "anallyst" have not factored in is the fact that Bill will be gone soon and me and my rubber-stamp team will lead Microsoft into this glorious future as Ballmersoft!
Now I KNOW you feel better!
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Tom B
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1771 Comments
Apr 12 10:22 PMMy developer friends tell me Apple's free "XCode" is years ahead of MSFT's dev tools.
"If Vista has equal performance to XP for gaming, then Microsoft wouldn't be in this mess"
I thought PC gaming was irrelevant now. Doesn't everybody game on consoles these days? I don't know-- I'm too busy to game. Actually, anybody who really wants to stick it to MSFT should go out and buy an Xbox-- they lose money on each one sold.
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User 77690
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4 Comments
My Website
Apr 12 10:58 PMIt's got nothing to do with us IT guys or the IT department head's choices. MSCE's withstanding, the issue is with the non-IT people, sales, administration, HR, etc that use a computer to massage document formats or data. True that you can do these functions in a Mac and stylishly more so, but it will cost double in the short term. And that IS what the bottom line is for any company in America, perhaps some parts of the world as well. the bottom line is money and saving money for spending the least on IT. thus the $300 DELL desktop...it will not outlast the durability of the Apple systems. but it will do this kind of jobs that are GUI just fine. IT is there to refresh the images of those computers and filter out the ubiquitous WIndows viruses from them.
What none of you have said, is that as the world moves to have double or triple the amount of computers (personal) than the US has now. The system of choice for them is the $0 solution, the Ubuntu stuff.
If you will only follow the foreign news...even a country like Germany, had 20,000 PC's turned into SuSE boxes (why SuSE ..not Ubuntu..because SuSE is german. and familiar is good. we do the same thing here...we don't like UNfamiliar as well)
So, just give it time...and Windows is out of the picture.
Apple, just hang in there, that your niche is just perfect...
Linux is just to replace Windows. it is not a niche, but a revolution to overthrow eventually Windows, which overthrew DOS and OS/2.
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User 77690
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4 Comments
My Website
Apr 12 11:04 PM-
mag
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28 Comments
Apr 14 07:02 AM-
GeeFive
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3 Comments
Apr 17 12:50 AMSalamat..
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Voice of Reason
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89 Comments
Apr 17 07:21 PM-
fredhead
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1 Comment
Apr 18 01:07 AM