Wanted, Dead or Alive: The iPhone Killer

by: Compete April 17, 2008 | about stocks: AAPL / NOK / RIMM / T / VZ    
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Compete

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Just got back from CTIA in Vegas, and I have to admit I was a bit disappointed this year. There were very few of the blockbuster product launches typical of the show. In the ever-present race to discover the elusive ‘iPhone killer’, there were only a few notable device announcements (Sprint’s (S) Samsung Instinct being a highlight), even though a number of companies positioned their next device as the latest and greatest to take on the AT&T (T) / Apple (AAPL) juggernaut.

This story has been the same since Apple announced the iPhone over a year ago. Now that the shine has worn off, it is time to take another look to see if anyone has emerged as the Apple assassin. Given that the majority of wireless shoppers plan to use the online channel to research their next purchase, we took a look at the online interest in the iPhone and its competitive set. What we found is that the biggest competitor for the iPhone is . . . wait for it . . . the iPhone!

No surprise, but the recently launched 16GB iPhone is the most heavily cross-shopped device amongst online shoppers who consider the 8GB iPhone by hitting a product detail page on att.com.

Given that most cross consideration occurs within a particular carrier, things get a little more interesting when we look at the devices that are cross-shopped across carriers. By looking at the cross consideration of the iPhone across carriers, you can start to get a picture of the early favorites for the devices that are most likely to draw interest away from the iPhone.

It raised a few eyebrows at the time, but when Verizon Wireless (VZ) CMO Mike Lanman said that the LG Voyager would “kill the iPhone” upon its unveiling last October, he may have been onto something. The iPhone isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but Lanman’s device has proven to be the iPhone’s primary competitor the past six months.

The volumes may not seem high, but the fact that 4% of everyone who viewed the iPhone on att.com in February also viewed the Voyager on verizonwireless.com represents a healthy interest. That number did drop to under 3% in March, with T-Mobile picking up the extra interest across the lineup of Blackberry Pearl, refurbished T-Mobile Dash, and the Blue Blackberry Pearl.

The fact that a refurbished device is now in the consideration set for the iPhone may also be indicative that the iPhone has finally fallen from its illustrious perch into the realm of other plain old ‘cool’ wireless devices.

To look at the newest of the iPhones, you can see that the cross-consideration of the 16GB iPhone looks a little different. This higher-priced device skews heavily towards Verizon Wireless, indicating a less price sensitive consumer who is comparing Verizon’s pricier service and devices versus T-Mobile.

The Voyager still stands as the biggest competitor to the various iPhone models in the market, but with overall interest levels falling in line with other popular handsets, you can start to sense the need for the Cupertino crew to put out the next generation iPhone device. Mr. Lanman is waiting.

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This article has 19 comments:

  •  
    Apr 17 07:29 AM
    I wonder why Apple has taken so long to release the 3G phone. How difficult can it be to make as compared to the 2G? It's got to be strategy rather than manufacturing time or difficulty level. I'm guessing that since the Iphone has been out for a while now, they are banking on existing users upgrading to newer models. Why else would they just not release a 3G to begin with? They must figure that they can sell a couple million right away just through the product upgrade cycle.

    I personally would have rather seen them just release the 3G first, then work on different sized models, smaller ones, larger ones, different shapes, etc. The competition gets steeper every day and it seems to me that innovation is the key.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 09:18 AM
    "Why else would they just not release a 3G to begin with? "

    Battery life and perhaps the contract with AT&T would be my guess.....
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 10:07 AM
    I f$%&! love my iPhone!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 10:14 AM
    I think the only killer of the original iPhone will be the next version of the iPhone..

    from what I see out there it looks like even the coolest smart phone is nothing but a
    mediocre clone of Apple's iPhone minus the user experience from the OS.
    Cell phone companies are not used to innovate at this level, al they did in the past to "innovate" was to offer more megapixel in the phone camera and a newer design .
    In terms of functionality today's cell phones are not much different than the phones from the 80's, in almost 30 years all they added is a camera and a keyboard
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 10:38 AM
    Yes, all they ever did was add a camera and a keyboard.
    The iPhone is NOT a phone, its a mini-computer with the best OS there is.
    Its never going to be a cheap mass-market device, but it will be almost impossible for any phone co. to make something as good.

    I will never use another kind of phone - the iPhone is the ONE!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 11:20 AM
    <I wonder why Apple has taken so long to release the 3G phone.>

    You think they are just sitting on it? It's in development and needs certification from the FCC too.

    <How difficult can it be to make as compared to the 2G?>

    Very difficult. They had to put a whole new chip set in there and then make sure their battery life didn't go to hell. That last part there is not trivial by any means.

    <It's got to be strategy rather than manufacturing time or difficulty level.>

    I think you are wrong. Apple engineers are working their asses off to meet some sort of stringent Steve deadline. That is the way it always is at Apple.


    Thompson
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 11:27 AM

    Add "RIMM" scam to the findings:

    DEPARTMENT OF TELCOM ENFORCES CYBER LAW ON MOBILE OPERATORS TO SHUT BB SERVICE
    INDIAN PARLIAMENT SESSION..........QUEST... RAISED ON NATION SECURITY THREAT FROM BLACKBERRY SERVICE......

    CIRCULAR NOTICE HANDED TO MOBILE OPERATORS TO OBEY THE CYBER LAW AND SHUT DOWN ANY BES/BIS SERVICE FROM REASEARCH IN MOTION ASAP

    AIRTEL COMMENTS ....LAUGHABLE....AIRTE... HAS MORE TO LOOSE THAN OTHER CARRIERS

    CHINA STILL NO BLACKBERRY SALE.......WHAT DID CHINA DEMAND FROM THESE CROOKS?

    ENTERPRISE NOW WAKING UP TO THIS SCAM PUSH EMAIL...WHICH IS CREATING PANIC AMONG ENTERPRISE PUSH EMAIL USERS AS THEY FIND THEIR EMAILS CAN BE STORED AND READ BY ALL NATIONS

    ((((ONE PONZI WONDER BUSINESS MODEL WILL BUST NEXT))))

    The Indian BlackBerry Ban Back On… At Least Temporarily
    The Home Ministry of India has asked telecom operators to halt certain BlackBerry services until an approved monitoring system that will allow the government to intercept and decrypt messages sent between BlackBerry devices and the secure network they run on is put into place.

    The department of telecommunications (DoT) and Research in Motion have been going back and forth with proposed solutions to India’s security concerns for the past several weeks without coming to a general consensus and thus, the government has issued temporary ban on all PIN messaging, BIS email, and BES email.

    Sources say that RIM has asked that the be given until the end of the month to address the security concerns. BlackBerry service is still working right now, however, the heat is on for RIM. India represents way too big an opportunity for RIM not to come up with an acceptable solution.

    Have your say! Add your comme
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 11:28 AM
    It's ludicrous to even put the Voyager in the same category as the iPhone. The Voyager is a fake iPhone that you can actually use to make calls.

    Uh, Apple is milking the market for all it's worth. That is why they didn't come out with the bleeding edge 3G (in US at least) from the get-go. That would be stupid. And, yeah, 'innovation' amonst traditional phones or 'smart' phones is pretty similar to innovation on the PC. Just put a faster chip in there, or maybe a larger screen, etc... but the iPhone is like the iPod. You don't have to understand computing to see that the iPod and iPhone are decades ahead of the 'competition'.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 11:34 AM
    Does any other phone manufacturer push software updates at you like Apple does with the iPhone? This feature alone is worth the price of entry, existing users will get increased functionality with each new release, so they wont necessarily be left behind by a 3G iPhone other than the obvious radio chipset differences. EDGE is still more widespread the HSDPA (3G) in the US. I would expect a sales turnaround in other parts of the world where 3G is king. What I am missing from the Apple camp is more country specific availability announcements. May be Apple went ahead with UK, France, Germany, Ireland etc to appease the iPhone leakage to those countries. I want to see countries like India, China, Japan, Russia, Brazil get their official announcements, but Apple is waiting for the 3G iPhone for those markets.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 11:42 AM
    The whole premise of this "article" is ridiculous, and the analysis absurd - these are web visits folks, not sales!

    "4% of everyone who viewed the iPhone on att.com in February also viewed the Voyager on verizonwireless.com represents a healthy interest"

    4% Healthy interest...You are joking right??????
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 11:43 AM
    Apple calls it the iPhone, but it could more accurately be called the iPC (i Pocket Computer). It's the world's one and only iPC.

    How long do you think it'll take for someone else's iPC to make it into your pocket? My guess: msft will screw up their 1st release in 2010, followed by something that works a year later. By then, it'll be too late and the iPhone will dominate its mkt, just like the iPod does today.

    Oh, and as an added benefit, msft transitions into a Mac OS X application services company benefiting humanity by removing all of it's crap OSes from the mkt!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 12:00 PM
    Google's gPhone kit, "Android" is one to watch. In less than 6 months it has developed a considerable developer community and there have already been experimental ports to a variety of devices including devices from HTC, Qualcomm and the Nokia 810.
    androidcommunity.com/

    Meanwhile Google has ported some of the apps to Blackberry.
    www.google.com/mobile/

    Jim Callahan
    Orlando, FL

    Jim Callahan
    Orlando, FL
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 02:04 PM
    "Apple calls it the iPhone, but it could more accurately be called the iPC (i Pocket Computer). It's the world's one and only iPC."

    Other than the Apple iPod Touch, of course!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 02:09 PM
    Obviously, most of the iPhone users here have never really used some of the HTC Windows Mobile devices. Sure the iPhone is beautiful, and its software is very easy to learn. So if you have trouble learning, get the iPhone. If not, go with the power and flexibility of an HTC Tilt (for example) with a built in GPS, bluetooth, 3G, slide out keypad, and thousands of custom applications and tweaks available to customize your experience. I can watch any live TV station that I get on cable at my home, through my phone and my SlingBox. My phone will automatically record my calls to mp3 files for me. I can get a new 8GB card (as many as I want) for about $60. I could go on and one, but just because it says Apple on it does not automatically make it the best. That being said, I purchased as much Apple stock that I could afford a few years back, because, as you see above, only 5% of the people looking at iPhone also looked at the Tilt. Apple users are like sheep. They refuse to believe that there can be anything better out there. Often there isn't, but until you have actually looked, you can not be sure of that. And a very small percent of you actually looked. I love Apple lovers!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 04:26 PM
    I examined 10 factors that put Apple in an unassailable position in the mobile platform wars and reviewed the weaknesses of iPhone competitors in:

    Who can beat iPhone 2.0?
    counternotions.com/200.../
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 06:25 PM
    people who look at the verizon phone do so because verizon has the best cell phone reception and they're used to that. at&t doesn't. having said that, the iphone is in a different world and if verizon management weren't so full of themselves, they would have struck a deal with apple and created an unbeatable juggernaut. apple is the only cell phone company with vision. the others just try to hitch a ride. their software and hardware combination is unmatched by anyone.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 17 09:29 PM
    The iphone will continue to be the 1st choice item in smart phones due to the same reason the ipod dominates music players... hardware & software integration. The only thing holding the iphone back from taking out BB is AT&T... Lots of folks look at it and want it but don't want to be stuck with AT&T... By the time some company comes out with real competition for the current model... Apple will be bringing out the next innovation... a la ipod. I suspect that there will be a major bump in iphone sales as soon as AT&T's exclusivity is gone... It's also a good bet that the other carriers are making plans to tweak their networks to meet Apple's specs in order to serve iphone customers ASAP when the time comes.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 18 12:08 AM
    Apple users are not sheep, they know what works and work doesn't, they can differential great user experience with crappy experience. They love their computers and after years of usage they still fetch great values in ebay.
    And why change when everything just works.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Apr 20 01:29 AM
    I would like to order some of Mr. Yag is smoking. It is clearly of great potency. The notion that Windows ANYTHING is equal to, let alone superior to, Apple is such an absurd notion that it is difficult to know whether to laugh or cry. FYI, I was a DOS and later Windows user for over 15 years - and I only wish I had transitioned sooner! Even before OS X, Macs were clearly the superior machine and experience. I know many former Windows sufferers who feel the same way.

    As to Voyager being an "iPhone killer" - Right! Like Zune killed the iPod, eh? I love Verizon, and dislike AT&T for a number of reasons - but I am switching as soon as iPhone 2.0 is out...
    Reply | Link to Comment
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