johnthebear

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    • Mon Dec 1st 11:04 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      China Isn’t Losing Its Competitive Edge
      Thanks again Michael for your keen insight and another of your articles that reveal the possible future in dealing with China. There is much to be concerned about as this monster global crisis becomes more acute.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 30th 23:30 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: Is Domestic Demand Rising or Declining?
      I follow FXI/FXP and was very surprised at the disconnect the past couple of days. I expect that FXI will head back to 19 tomorrow as the economic reality of reduced earnings forcast are put back into investors equations along with the slight reduction in interest rates around the world. The question I face, is will FXP resume it's loft status that corresponded with the FXI a few days ago?

      Earnings and a bottom on the home price decline seem more important than interest rates at this point in time. It is hard to understand the logic for the market being up today.

      I like the idea of making new low interest 30 year mortgages available to qualified buyers, but do not like the idea of bailing out mortgages to those that had no business buying a house in the first place.

      It seems that the US led the world into the crisis and it will not end until the US is able to slow the drop of residential real estate prices, which will be tough to do if unemployment starts rising sharply.

      Waiting in the wings is the problem of overvalued commercial real estate which will hit the financial press in the next few months. How to find financing for buyers looking to buy real estate with huge loans of failing REITs and hedge funds will be a monster of a problem, and could long delay the turn around, both for US as well as China.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 17th 08:18 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bespoke's International Market Snapshot
      In my opinion ^ssec and ^hsi have at least another 10%-15% drop ahead. I have puts in FXI with a $20 strike for Jan 2010. We are looking at a bear that last at least twice as long as the last decline 2000-2003 due to the world wide loss of $25 trillion in equity capital. China and Russia billionaires are down big time... No one can say how bad it will get.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 14th 23:12 PM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Historical Bull and Bear Markets for the Dow: 1900-Present
      It would be nice to see detailed charts during the 1925 to 1940 period, overlaid with the Dow and (Nasdaq adjusted for dates).

      I suspect that the 2000-2003 bear will be short in comparison with this financial disaster since the basic financial system remained sound, world wide. Not so this time.

      Now we have to recover with badly wounded banking system, looking over it's shoulders at regulators trying to make sure every loan is justified. Good thought, and necessary in view of the abuse in Congress and with powerful corruption caused by Acorn along with Feddie and Fannie.

      Now, lenders are crippled with shortage of qualified employees to make loans, review appraisals and process the loans. Also, I cannot foresee a return to the securitization of mortgages any time soon, so lenders that make the loans will probably have to live with them for the duration. Maybe 10 years from now there may be something similar, but hopefully with strong regulation.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 14th 22:24 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      David, I have noticed a disconnect between FXI and the double short FXP for the last few trading days.

      FXI moved down today, but FXP barely moved. Any idea why this happened or how FXP climbed to 219 just before the close on October 9th while FXI moved to 24.31? I am heavily invested in FXP and it looks to me like the gap on FXI at 28.38 should fill soon. But, will FXP give the appropriate move up?

      SRS and IYR are moving as expected with the 2:1 ratio.

      Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 10th 22:42 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time to Pick Up the Pieces of the Global REIT Thud
      It seems to me that you have forgotten about mark to market accounting which will impact those formerly strong appreciation figures. There will be a time for REIT's but not for a couple of years, IMO and at a much lower price.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 10th 01:03 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Earnings Preview: General Electric
      Any idea how mark-market will affect commercial real estate loans and property held by GE?

      Can we expect an honest report?
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 4th 23:32 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now?
      The problem with your analysis as I see it, is that you have not factored in the major correction coming in commercial real estate, world wide. Regional and local Banks will be failing with 60% of their loans in commercial real estate.

      Capitalization rates were two low, based on expected appreciation and low interest rates. They will begin to rise with the interest rates and added risk premium due to rising vacancy. Prices of commercial real estate will be falling, as will industrial property with rising unemployment.

      This means, that while residential property values may bottom in 2010, there will be a longer delay before commercial real estate will show signs of recovery. New construction might be expected in a more normal recession sponsored by government, but with lower property taxes and failing state governments (CA and NY etc) there is no source of wealth to back up the economy. Then if you really want to get depressed, what will happen as social security tax revenues fall and the system breaks down sooner than expected?

      A long bitter road is ahead, better tread carefully.

      Might be a that WW III will be needed to end the mess. This could all happen much sooner than you expect. What happens if there is an Iran-Israel war between the time of the election and inaguration? Get right with GOD?
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 1st 09:01 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More
      "WE MUST VOTE OUT ALL INCUMBENTS no matter which party they are in."

      There can be no change with a "new" president, with the same bunch of FOOLS that got us in the mess.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 1st 08:48 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Bailout Brouhaha
      So much depends on the "package"!

      They have it all wrong.

      Freeze interest resets from Jan 2008 for 3 years.

      To heck with lenders making more money!

      Got to stop foreclosures NOW!

      Government cannot manage vacant houses!

      The "package stinks" and I don't trust Paulson since he was part of the reason we are here with the stupid Fannie-Freddie Fraud beginning in 1995.

      All the top democrats, Dodd, Oboman, Frank are at the root of the problem along with Franklin Rains!

      How can we trust any of these LIARS?
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 30th 23:21 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Analogies to the Great Depression
      OldLimey, Thanks I read the article you mentioned, confirmed my understanding of the market.

      The only problem is that I own SRS and now I am not sure what the effect will be if they ban the mark-to-market rule. Just think, need some appreciation to support more debt, no problem!
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 30th 10:26 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bailout Is Just the Beginning
      A safe place to sock away your money?

      TNH Terra Nitrogen Co.

      EPS $13.95
      PE 7.52
      YIELD 14.24%

      75% of the stock is held by insiders and there is very low trading volume. Yesterday was only 195,000 shares! I own the stock and recommend it.

      View article »
    • Mon Sep 29th 04:42 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      New Rules for Chinese Stock Market Investors
      Does anyone have a prediction on FXI in 6 months?

      I am thinking $20? or will it take a little longer?
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 29th 04:33 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Analogies to the Great Depression
      It is amazing to me that no one is talking about the overpriced commercial real estate with 5% capitalization rates that fill the portfolios of the REITs?

      Who will bail out the REITs?

      There is just not enough money to bail out everyone, especially as unemployment begins to climb. Who in the world will we get to occupy all those offices formerly occupied by Wall Street?

      Surely there has to be a better way than what Paulson and the democrats want.

      Google "Community Reinvestment Act" and check out the discussion in Wikipedia for clear description of how the mess really started with Freddie and Fannie and who really ruined it for all of us.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 29th 04:18 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Paulson Stampedes Congress
      Google "Community Reinvestment Act" or check out Wikipedia for a very good discussion of the history leading to the massive bailout.

      What you will read will make your blood boil and tell you the truth without political distortion.

      There are many other web sites that discuss and analyze the financial failure of Fannie and Freddie. Just take a look with Google. You don't have to take my word for it.

      It is amazing that the public is so dumb and easily fooled by the smooth talking oboman.

      When we elect him president, he will control 100% of the United States Government. It will not take long before he takes over the Supreme Court by appointing a couple of very young left wing extremist to the court. You can say good bye to everything good about America.

      We will look just like Russia, And to think, not a shot was fired! Lord help us, we know not what we do!
      View article »