redbaron

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  • The Corn Shortage: Ideas for Investors
    Tyson's earning out today (7/28), and they were down 90% over last year. Ingredient costs from high corn prices just crushed their margins. Earnings were 3 cents per share, vs. expectations of 12 cents. The stock tanked, as also did PPC, but the stocks are still too expensive. How did this idea work out?
    Jul 28 22:41 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Corn Shortage: Ideas for Investors
    The reason that Tyson has not moved up in this high corn market, is that Tyson is no long a pure poultry play. When Tyson purchased IBP a few years ago, it became one of the nations largest processors of pork and beef (if not the largest). And even if it were still a pure poulty play, the benefits are slight IMHO, as they still have to buy grain to feed chickens economically; they can't take it out of the ration completely. I'm watching the stock, but for me to buy it any time soon, it has to move back down to at least the 12-13 range, and I would like it better if it were lower. Again, IMHO
    Jun 17 09:49 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part III
    Great Point, Lisa.............one could reasonably expect real postive results from those we are we are putting on that investment pedestal.
    Jun 15 18:44 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea
    'Are You Diversified?' is a fools game, in this current investment enviornment, as Fitz correctly points out (IMHO). I have laughed at Cramer each night, as he plays this little game, and can say without reservation that those who have followed his diversification game, have not done nearly as well for the past 3 years, as my non-diversified grouping of energy stocks and funds. The question now, however, is 'what happens next'........and the answer to that is not nearly so clear. If the last energy crisis is any guide, energy stocks continued to go up, after everything else turned down, with oil stocks up 60%+ in 1980 alone. Kurt Wulff (superb Oil Analyst, IMHO, mcdep.com), sees some similarities between our current situation and 1980 (election year, energy shortage recognized, high energy prices affecting the economy, etc.), and is still very bullish on oil and energy stocks. I follow Kurt closely, and continue to follow his advice. I recommend him highly. He posts here from time to time, but his advice is free on a time delayed basis at mcdep.com.
    May 30 10:04 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is Oil a Bubble? Part One
    T. Boone says that natural gas is the future; as he says, 'it is available here domestically, we don't have to import it, we are finding more of it here currently as we begin to look harder for it, it burns cleaner than gasoline or diesel, and it is currently about 60% the price of gasoline or diesel so it is cheaper'. IMHO we would as a country do well to listen to what he has to say. The company he founded is offering their systems to fleet transportation currently. Here is a link:
    www.cleanenergyfuels.c.../
    May 23 15:38 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is Oil a Bubble? Part One
    I see signs that we are beginning to conserve here in the states, but actual consumption of energy is still going up. At the same time, consumption globally is also still going up. There will be a correction in the price of oil, but the question is 'Are we there yet?' I don't think we are because of what I observe each day. Eventually, it will happen, but it is going to take more significant moves than what we come up with so far. We first have to un-do some of the mistakes we have made (i.e., ethanol). We are beginning to ask some of the right questions, but the solutions for us here in the states to me seem far in the future. In the mean-time, I will own oil and oil related stocks.

    I also am looking forward to Part II, which will likely promote more great discussion. I think such discussion, debate, or whatever, is a large part of the solution.
    May 23 08:47 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is Oil a Bubble? Part One
    FXTrader, yes I am aware of the way the chinese subsidize gasoline, but how is that different from what we do with grain and ethanol production? A gov't subsidy in the US is not any different than a gov't subsidy in China or elsewhere. We do the same thing!
    May 23 08:00 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Is Oil a Bubble? Part One
    Great discussion. I vote with Papita and Ship Shape. An 'oil bubble' will become a reality, when we start conserving, and/or the developing countries are no longer emerging. We Americans look at the world only through our own perspective, and that ignorance of what is actually happening here is going to cost us big time. Those billions of Chinese, Indians, et al, want what we have, and are making progress towards getting it. They are buying cars now, instead of bicycles, and it is not going to stop just because we don't like it. We are beginning to take some basic steps towards doing some things right, but we have a long way to go, and the rest of the world is not waiting for us to figure this out. I'm holding my oil positions until I see some genuine progress, and at this time that seems a long distance into the future.
    May 23 07:34 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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