redbaron

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  • eBay: Stock Fully Valued at Current Price
    Well reasoned, and perhaps the correct position.

    I however, still consider eBay a short. My logic is biased, due to my thoughts on managements recent decisions, but it is strengthened by decisions such as spending additional funds on the purchase of BillMeLater. How management thinks they can make money on BillMeLater, when the credit card companies are tightening credit terms due to non-payments, is besides me.

    Ebay cannot succede when they are treating their long-time customer base sellers in the manner they consistently are now doing. These customers will continue to leave them, over time, for other selling options, and without a change in either management, strategy, or both, I can see only long term negative growth for the company. Sellers are the only players actually paying eBay and PayPal fees, and hence, they are the customers, IMHO.

    Disclosure: long term short.
    Jan 06 10:49 am |Rating: +5 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Asset Allocation in 2009: Best to Go with the Devil You Know
    I should also add that I was not wise enough to buy at the lows on the list of small cap value stocks shown above, but instead bought on the way down before the bottom. Regardless, the positions have still done very well. (So Far!)

    If there is a lesson, it is that small cap low-priced, value stocks will usually outperform in a recovery phase of the market. In addition, one has the January effect that can also add to small cap value stocks performance in the first part of the year, and also the nice dividends that most of these stocks still pay.



    Jan 05 10:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Asset Allocation in 2009: Best to Go with the Devil You Know
    My group of small cap value stocks have all done better since the 11/20 bottom than the stocks on your list. I own Baldor (BEZ), Carpenter Technologies (CRS), FLOW International (FLOW), Joy Global (JOYG), Layne Christensen (LAYN), Manitowoc (MTW), Timken (TKR), Tyson (TSN), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Alcoa (AA), Ultralife Batteries (ULBI), Twin Disc (TWIN), and a few others. Many of these have already doubled, but then low priced stocks will always out-perform from an 'initial' bottom.
    Jan 05 00:03 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • eBay: The PayPal Factor
    It occurs to me that with credit card companies having increased trouble collecting payments from card holders that was just recently announced, that perhaps eBay might also have increased trouble with collecting payments made through the BillMeLater option. Credit card stocks are down, and that to me would seem to be a negative for eBay and BillMeLater. Why would eBay be immune from this trend?
    IMHO
    Dec 31 07:02 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What Will Become of eBay?
    What happened to Dianah's eBay post on SA? Is SA allowing eBay to delete posts here? And if that is indeed what is happening, where is free speech and dissent going next? Anything negative to eBay has been deleted on their boards for years, but deleting it here in the public arena is something new, at least to me. Perhaps I've not been watching close enough, but I hadn't seen this before. With all the dumb and uninteligent posts that SA allows, it would seem only proper that someone with inside eBay experience should be allowed to post thoughts on what is actually happening within the company. SA, are you listening. IMHO
    Dec 22 09:44 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What Will Become of eBay?
    Ebay, in my opinion, is broken, but not permamently. All they really need to do is get back to what worked before. I have sold there since the beginning in 1996, and the new management has alieneated both buyers and sellers with their 2008 changes. It is not too late to go back to the model that worked for the previous 12 years, but first one must admit that the most recent changes have been a mistake. One very basic mistake they have most recently made is forgetting that it is sellers who pay all the fees, which, IMHO, makes sellers the customers. Some communication with sellers would go a long way to improving the site, but first management must be willing to do that. Go back to your roots, Ebay, back to basics, and it is not too late to turn this all around.
    Dec 21 20:19 pm |Rating: +4 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Sector Overview: Internet Stocks
    The eBay model is broken, and current management has made it worse. The stock has bounced up a little currently, and this should be used as an opportunity to sell. Again, short this stock if you don't own it, and sell it, if you do. The bottom is not yet in sight.

    No company can succeed using a strategy like they have now implemented, treating their customers like they are now treating theirs.
    Dec 14 06:40 am |Rating: +1 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Poor Performance Often Linked to Excessive Executive Pay
    AI, as I recall, it was the CEO of P&G, who was so outspoken about the need for a new generation of American workers who were better educated and more flexible, during the down-sizing that happened during the 1990's. While I haven't tried to research the individuals involved, either then or now, one now has to wonder if the need for change might have been slightly mis-placed. What goes around, often comes around again, but with a slightly different emphasis.
    Dec 09 13:10 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • eBay's Donahoe Has Crow for Thanksgiving
    Lenny, I repeat, take these complaints seriously. If you own the stock, sell it, and if you don't own it, short it. John D. has seriously screwed up the site for sellers, and sellers are the only ones paying the bills.

    Sellers are the real customers here, not buyers. Sellers are the only ones paying eBay fees. Buyers don't pay for anything except the merchandise.

    Nov 28 08:10 am |Rating: +5 -3 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Paypal Holds Sellers' Funds Hostage
    Chitto: Not a clue to eBay happenings, so why post?

    We have been an eBay seller since the beginning, and we had some of our funds recently held as 'unclaimed' in what PayPal claimed was a 'glitch'. Dinah has it right, and it seems to me that holding these funds is close to illegal, if not outright illegal. It will likely take a court case challenge to get them to change their policies, and not many sellers will bother with that, as it is easier to just move to something else. Amazon is not the only challenge, however, as traditional bricks and mortar stores are also an option for sellers.

    Ebay continues to offer nothing but dis-incentives to sellers, and it seems to me that without sellers, Ebay is going to be toast. They can import big-volume corporate sellers, but buying new commercial merchandise on eBay, is not what made them great. It was the thrill of finding something that could not be found anywhere else, that made eBay work, and John Donohue just doesn't understand that concept. Without the 'thrill of the hunt', eBay is just another big-box volume discounter.

    Who comes after Donohue, is the question I think must be asked, as to continue to leave it in this guys hands is corporate suicide.

    I posted here when the stock was in the mid 20's, 'Sell the stock if you own it, and short it if you don't', and that advice stands today. Donohue will not go back to the core values that made eBay work in the beginning, and that flaw will be fatal.

    Nov 10 10:58 am |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • eBay Q3: What it Means for Sellers
    Scot, I am going to post here, in hopes you will eventually read this, as it is very relevant to how eBay is handling Customer Service at the present time. I am a long time seller (since 1996), and the current situation involves a problem that has not received any attention, outside of the eBay boards, as far as I can determine.

    The problem involves a bug or software issue, within PayPal, on echeck payments to sellers accounts, and I first became aware of it on Sunday 10/26/08. Premier Account holders were incorrectly sent emails that should have been reserved for Business Account holders, which told them that they would have to claim echeck payment funds before these same funds could be credited to their account. My first such email came directly from PayPal on Sunday 10/26, and I thought it strange, so forwarded the email to PayPal Spoof to see if it was genuine. I also called PayPal, and both the email response, and the verbal communication in the phone call, told me that the email was a spoof, and that I should dis-regard it. However, that related echeck transaction in my paypal account, showed (incorrectly) that the funds were still 'unclaimed'.

    To make a long story short, it is now 8 days later, and 5 more phone calls later, and I still have not received credit for those funds. I was told to go ahead and ship the item (2nd or 3rd phone call) because this was a PayPal bug; I did that, and my customer now has the merchandise, but I still do not have the funds in my account. PayPal continues to apolgize, but still no funds. Most of the PP agents I have spoken to have been very courteous, and they always apologize, but I still do not have the funds. I have been told twice that I would be granted a provisional credit to my account, and on the most recent call just this morning (call #5, 11/2), I was told that my credit was be prioritized, whatever that means. PayPal is holding millions of dollars of sellers funds, and charging us fees for these transactions, and in the process, earning huge amounts in interest off our funds.

    The PayPal agents all seem to be out of this country, and it is quite obvious that this customer service function has been outsourced, likely to somewhere in India. The problem is not one of lack of courtesy, but one of no action on a very serious problem.

    How would you grade Ebay on this situation, were you an eBay seller? This is how eBay deals with sellers in this current enviornment, and it is clearly why eBay is losing sellers at such a fast rate. As an investor, you need to be more aware of situations like this, as it will ultimately affect your holdings. Taking over a week to solve such a problem, is just not acceptable, when a credit could have been granted with one phone call. This is not an isolated problem, and the eBay power sellers boards are full of complaints on this issue. Clearly, millions of dollars are being held by PayPal, currently, due to this issue, and all we have to show for the problem is courtesy and apologies. At some point, that just is not enough.
    Nov 03 09:01 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • eBay Buyer Incentives Are Not a Good Bargain
    Hope one of the new sites works out for sellers and buyers alike. I add my voice to those above who think that Donohue has killed this company, investors just don't realize it yet.

    Has anyone else noticed how few buyers are bothering to post feedback, now that only they can post negatives (and sellers only positives). My total feedbacks posted, as a percentage of total items sold, is now about 1/2-1/3 of what it was previously; for instance, only about 20-30 per month, where before it was 60-90 per month. Buyers just aren't bothering to post FB any more. Those changes killed FB, IMHO. Previously, feedback had some problems, and it was some times used improperly, but it did work. Now, it just doesn't work at all, and is totally meaningless.
    Oct 31 09:40 am |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • No Christmas for eBay Sellers
    Another long time seller, who is very disappointed with Donahoe and his policies. For many years, eBay continued to fix problems that weren't broke, and address issues that weren't problems. This is the ultimate result.

    They had it all! They drove all the small shops out of business, and it resulted in even large antique malls being closed all over the country. We could have continued selling there for a long time, but no.....they had to change it again with new ideas and inovations. You used to be able to drive across the country and find small shops all over to stop and shop. That is no longer the case, and eBay is largely the reason.

    I would have stayed to sell, if they had just left it alone and stopped 'fixing problems' that didn't need to be fixed, but why pay someone to list your stuff, if the search tools don't allow buyers to find it?

    I've found an antique mall, and am going to try that again. At least customers can see your stuff, and find it if they are looking for it.

    All I want for Christmas, is a new eBay CEO!
    Oct 19 08:48 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • eBay in the Basement - But Not for Long
    Investor: OK, I grant you that.

    Now I am going to ask you, in this current environment, 1) what sort of a PE do you put on this half of eBay that is showing this growth?, and what sort of a PE do you put on the other half, the half that is the traditional auction based business that is showing negative growth? And third, can one average those two PE numbers and use that for a rational price basis?

    I'll await your response, as I see that glass as half empty.
    Oct 17 08:01 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • eBay: Bottom Is a Few Months Away
    Bob C has it right, Dan, and I 2nd this suggestion. Just give it a try, and see what you think of Donohue after a month.
    Oct 09 16:42 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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