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  • Four Ways to Protect Money During the Fallout
    How about a new rule on SA: no one is allowed to post an "OMGZ it's DEFLATION!!!111one&quo... post or article unless he or she has at least 50% of his or her net worth in gold puts dated no earlier than 2010. If "deflation" is such a slam dunk you should turn at least a 5x profit on such a position without taking any risk at all.

    In fact all of you deflationistas are committing both of the cardinal sins: you are arguing with the tape and you are fighting the Fed. So put your money where your mouth is or shut up. The author is largely correct although I would not bother with stocks at all and would instead short the Long Bond for the perfect hyperinflationary duo.
    Oct 08 10:18 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Stagflation and Peak Oil: How Related Are They? (Part II)
    A good summary. Unfortunately your very first suggestion is all but useless. TIPS track the CPI, which is not a realistic measure of price increases. They may do somewhat better than ordinary Treasuries, but ultimately the understatement of price rises and the tax disadvantages (see also gold - is it shocking to anyone that inflation protection is taxed so brutally?) will cause them to lose purchasing power.

    Then there's the supply problem. The deficit is already enormous and is growing as more bailouts and "stimulus packages" force the Treasury to borrow ever more. For now demand appears to be keeping pace, but there are limits. When (not if, when) foreign central banks decide they've had enough, this game will come to an end and interest rates will rise abruptly. TIPS all have intermediate to long duration (no 1-year TIPS, sadly) and will be crushed when 10-year rates inevitably hit 10% while the CPI continues to be reported at benign levels like 4-5%.
    Jul 27 14:44 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ron Paul's Investment Portfolio
    What's wrong with such a concentrated portfolio? When you're right, you're right. At various times I've hedged my bets, holding junk like C and FNM. It's instructive to look back at my performance over time: every single stretch of underperformance matches a period in which I held something I did not believe in "just in case I'm wrong". I applaud Congressman Paul for saying what he means, meaning what he says, and putting his own personal fortune on the line in a manner entirely consistent with his values. And I don't hedge any longer: my portfolio has a lot less mining than the congressman's, but a lot more physical gold - a holding he almost certainly has as well but (wisely) does not disclose. Why should he hold assets he does not believe are valuable? If you want "diversification&... go ahead and buy that crap. But this is not a time for diversification; it is a time to look at the obvious macro trends and take advantage of them. That or sit in cash and cross your fingers that that's still worth something when this is all over.
    Jul 12 17:28 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • $200 Oil, $2000 Gold?
    kurt walter is dead right. Many Americans have negative net work and many others would, if corporations, be reporting negative annual earnings. There is very little wealth left in America today if one subtracts out all the liabilities. $500 a month is preposterous for most people. They're lucky if their credit card and HELOC balances aren't growing at that rate.
    Apr 26 00:27 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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