BS Detector

Comment Stream » CF

Comment Stream
Filter comments by:
Highest rated Latest comments
Or filter by symbol:
  • Will CF Industries Take Itself Private?
    On the cash position - best to include customer advances, which are payments made by customers for product not yet delivered. It looks like the addition of the auction rate securities this quarter came straight from the increase in customers' advance payments this quarter.

    So cash, short-term investments, and ARS net customer advances increased from $555M to $574M, which makes sense. Pull out the negligible debt, and the company has a net cash position of just more than $10/share, or 17% of the stock's price.

    Put another way, taking the cash and near-cash positions out of the company, and using the latest earnings estimates, and including the nice rebound these last few days, CF trades at no more than 3.2x next year's earnings. Estimates will continue to fall, but I wouldn't expect them to fall more than 40%, which would mean this stock is trading at at most 5x its earnings in The Worst Year Ever. Price/book remains right around 2.0, which is very comparable to Mosaic (also trading at about 3.0x, with a huge cash position, though also with considerable debt of unknown maturity).
    Oct 30 16:35 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article

BS Detector's Comments Stream Stats

  • 299 Comments, 65 , 55
  • Total Comment Stream rating - = 10