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  • Baltic Dry Index Signaling a Market Bottom?

    > As for my witch doctor ways, well they resulted in nearly 400% gains
    > in 2008, how did the fundamental techniques work out for you?

    I think that means "yes, I'm a witch doctor, and I've got a voodoo doll with your name on it."

    > And, TBSI is my favorite of the group (GNK as well), but I've already
    > stolen 800% gains in the call options, so I am trimming back"

    Why is this one your favorite? Did it exhibit a voluptuous curves pattern?
    Jan 07 15:31 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Baltic Dry Index Signaling a Market Bottom?
    "...in tow years time the dry bulk fleet will double (no one know how big cancelations will be) which will continue to put pressure on the rates..."

    Don't think so. The economic incentives for entering this market are greatly reduced, capacity scrapped in October alone was greater than for the previous two years combined, and companies are walking away left and right from contracts to buy and build new ships (e.g. DRYS, NM).

    "Key is to see what the values of the ships are; today a capesize vessel built in 1997 was sold for $27m."

    This is an extraordinarily thin market, understandably distressed, with very few "comps" to try to determine a market price. I would no sooner assume a single sale is representative than assume a house is worth no more than what the foreclosure next door sold for.
    Jan 07 12:17 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Baltic Dry Index Signaling a Market Bottom?
    Ricard -

    I'm not the one who wrote an article basically saying that ALL dry bulk shippers are going up because of the orientation of the moon and Venus in the seventh house.

    Anyway, the answer to your question is - a little. I decided that the sector deserved a flyer and I have a position in SBLK, because it was in relatively good financial shape and it was not very much higher priced that EXM, which has significantly more debt. While trailing PE is of questionable value generally and very little value in the current economy, in the dry bulk shippers it means nothing at all. What matters is survivability. Some of these companies are not going to make it, and the survivors are going to be in good shape in a smaller market. So financials are quite important here than.

    Naturally, SBLK has been hit like everybody else, and because it also last quarter paid out a dividend (which I don't like), its cash position isn't as strong as I would like. However, its debt burden is smaller than most if not all of its competitors, it has pretty high contracted utilization, and it will have very good cash flow last quarter and into 2009.

    Naturally, it's been outperformed by... just about everybody. Sigh - such is life.
    Jan 06 13:56 pm |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Baltic Dry Index Signaling a Market Bottom?
    Inverse head and shoulders, eh? I call it a "Fat Bastard Turtle Head."

    Have you done any research into any of these companies, such that you might find any of them to be any better than any other? Or are you one of these witch doctors who doesn't believe looking beyond the chart can yield additional useful information?
    Jan 06 09:09 am |Rating: +3 -8 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Looking Good: Genco in Particular, Shipping in General
    Last year's PE is meaningless, as shipping rates got to be almost 15 times what they are now. You should expect these dividends to go away completely as these companies hold cash in anticipation of a prolonged slowdown. Genco has a particularly high debt burden, and while its current ratio indicates it is well able to meet current obligations, a prospective investor would be wise to dig into their debt to see when it comes due - others will.
    Nov 24 08:38 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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