The hand

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  • How Will Obama Deal with the Federal Deficit?
    "It has still not been proven that government spending can be substituted for private spending in order to create sustainable growth and permanent jobs. In has still not been proven that the world can absorb all of the government debt that is being created. It has still not been proven that the government can generate all of these deficits and not end up monetizing a large portion of them."

    and that, John, is the problem in a nutshell. the government is trying to gdp fill (not stimulate). the systemic issues which have brought us to hells doorway are unresolved. it will take years to unwind our way from this economic disaster.

    i fear, not only is this spending happening too early in the crisis, but we will be saddled with this debt and will create and additional mountain we must travel over before the economy can rebuild.
    Jan 09 04:49 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Jobs Loss Rumors Are Flying; Speculation to the Upside
    "However, do keep in mind that the stock market cycle does precede the actual recovery of the economy. So when this is coming about…bad news can still come out and stocks still rise. The question remains…are we at that point yet? That’s the million dollar question."

    you might be a few years too early to be waiting for economic recovery.

    the unemployment numbers today might be on the low side for a few reasons: 1) data gathering is suspect over holiday periods; 2) many companies have policies not to lay off near christmas.

    i think the unemployment numbers for the following two weeks will begin to tell the story of what is really happening.
    Jan 09 04:31 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Can Obama Meet His Great Economic Expectations?
    Obama is faced with an economic crisis unparalleled since hoover. the swamp is filled with alligators - and he will soon learn there is no consensus on the way forward.

    what may be worse is when it is realized that the current game plan does not work,
    Jan 09 04:18 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Morale Deflating Jobs Data Released
    we can all be confident that there is no number out there that represents the real unemployment situation. the governments numbers are compiled in a manner which i could drive a bulldozer through the holes - but it is done consistently the wrong way. it really is the only real comparative tool we have between periods.

    only on census years is the true situation known. with census data the data anomalies are adjusted. we will have the answers by 2011.

    in any event, unemployment is bad - and i personally think it is worse than U-6.
    Jan 09 03:45 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why Aren't Stocks Falling?
    the market is levitating because there is a lot of money out there sitting in funds / sidelines - and it is not working. this pressure is keeping the market up. this is a real upward fundamental.

    there is no where to put money to work.

    i am happy the market is not hoping around like an indian walking on fire.







    Jan 09 02:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Housing: Where Is the Bottom?
    John, excellent work. my work over the last few days is indicating our housing analysis may be optimistic. i continue to look for contrary data as i like debate - nothing is black or white. but this housing crisis is like a shaving cut to a hemophiliac.

    generally speaking, it is easier to discover negatives than positives - so when i project outcomes i try to use one of the more optimistic resolutions. but this crisis is starting to overrun projections which is a growing concern.

    most people are thinking that when the monthly mortgage cost approached rents stability price stability will happen. what if rents are falling (the are!). what happens if this recession is "L" shaped - this means the unemployed will not be returning and you have 10% of the population unable to purchase. under these scenarios john. IMO we are truly screwed.
    Jan 09 02:11 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Will December Non-Farm Payrolls Rebound?
    Data collection (preliminary numbers) in holiday periods should be suspect. my guess they will be under reported.
    Jan 08 22:16 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • TARP Turning a Profit
    excuse me if i inquire if that $8 billion is actual money given to treasury or a guess of stock appreciation. you realize a 16% return is larger than even the largest bull$hitter investment manager on wall street is claiming.
    Jan 08 04:22 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • New Mortgage Bankruptcy Bill Does Not Address Real Problem
    if the government absorbs low interest rate mortgages - what happens when interest rates rise. it is easy to get to a scenario where the payments from the mortgages are lower than the cost of financing the government debt.

    the more and more low interest paper the government buys or issues is locking the good ole usa into a japanese style zirp economy. the economic burden barrier to inflation is these low cost loans.
    Jan 08 02:21 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Nine Market Predictions for 2009
    dan,

    your predictions are better than most.
    Jan 08 02:10 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Obama Plan: Overweight Fiscal?
    John,

    the housing crisis cannot be fixed but they will spend the money anyway. miss-spent money does not stimulate the economy. we are digging a bigger and bigger hole.

    i do not understand when the basic economic recovery scheme did not work in previous recessions, the conclusion was drawn that not enough money was thrown at the problem. it surely could not have been true that that the concept itself was flawed as it would have undercut existing economic dogma.

    in any event, we will recover at some point from this mess wiser and dumber - and continue to draw the wrong conclusions from historical events.
    Jan 08 02:07 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Obama - Stop the Bailouts, We Want to Get Off
    the role of the government in a capitalist economy recession is to mitigate the effects on the citizens (eg unemployment).

    what we are seeing is a government who seems to want to repair the economy without letting the elements that created the recession to work their way out (unwind) of the system.

    i have doubts that a government who did not see (or prevent this event from occurring) could properly effect a repair.

    Jan 08 01:22 am |Rating: +5 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Blaming the Ratings Agencies: Too Convenient
    we have an problem in that:
    - it is impossible for an investor to perform due diligence.
    - the government has historically been a piss poor regulator.

    in shipping, the rating agency is the insurer also - they are putting their wallets where their mouth is.
    Jan 08 00:58 am |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Obama Doubles Down
    Social security and medicare are still making a profit, and the profit is being used to finance the country. Social security is not a current threat in 2009 - there are bigger fish to fry.

    most of the commenters are assuming these huge stimulus's can trigger this economy. what happens if they do not? these are not really stimulus - but gdp filliing. i don't see anything yet which will retrigger the economy.

    i hope i am wrong.
    Jan 08 00:31 am |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Banker: Not a Clue
    we are (and should be) ranting about tarp - the wall of invisibility. but our government works that way. try to burrow in on how anything is done - how money is spent. the most open of all is the fed - and they are terrible.

    we, as a nation, either put people in office which will create a transparent environment - or just resign yourselves to the status quo.

    it really is the people's choice.
    Jan 07 18:55 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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